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December 06, 2007



Nice work.

I've been shorting MBI and ABK among others for almost 2 months now, fading and rolling, and it has been a tremendous trade. But it has reached a point of diminishing returns, where bad news is already priced in.

Yesterday news of the credit rating warning was a perfect example, with the stock price of ABK not even breaking its 52 week low, and both up nicely today.

I'm currently solidly ITM through Jan expiry, but not rolling out further until I sense another leg down.

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The turmoil in the subprime mortgage market resulting in huge claims from various financial institutions could result in huge payout for these reinsurance companies.

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How many times must you get hit in the face before you put your hands up? I am not one for litigation (actually I hate and despise it, to put it lightly), but this stuff really, really begs the question.

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