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December 03, 2007

Comments

mike

Congrats... although I think you may have been as surprised as I was, or as a bull was, to see LEN do this. These guys have a serious transparency problem. And look at Mr. Kim's comments this morning regarding this transaction hahahaha.... why is he making his mother cry that she has such a stubborn perma-bullish son, why???

Reggie

Actually, I wasn't surprised at all. Listen, they have to sell the stuff one way or the other. I actually think land and home buyers who go in now are probably overpaying by chomping at the bit too early. I see MS was smart enough to make the deal highly structured, though. I would be content to wait a bit and let the land sellers get a little more desperate. Once the housing market bottoms, it is not like it is going to leap back up anywhere near bubble prices. So patience remains a virtue.

As for Kim, I would ignore him unless he is able to push the builder prices up high enough to allow another profitable round of shorting. If I get the time, I will graph his opinions next to mine.

Arun

More Lennar fire sales

http://www.presstelegram.com/ci_7628589

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/12/05/Business/Developer_scoops_up_p.shtml

At this rate it appears that Lennar is padding itself for 4Q report or they are selling to raise cash to pay the bills.

Or, is it a clever tactic to stiff the bond holders until they can enter Chapter 13 BK and reorganize? The MS deal structure with 50% voting control seems quite funny.

What is your take on it Reggie?

Reggie

I think Lennar's creditors were leaning on them hard and Lennar was hard pressed to generate liquidity. They are between a rock and a hard place here. By generating liquidity, they are marking their inventory to market which looks ugly in this environment. I will make this a new post.

50% voting control means that they paid for the right to veto MSs direction in the JV if they see fit. I am sure there is a clause in the contract that makes things a little clearer, though. If not, then it is probably litigation waiting to happen.

va refinancing loan

those guys have issues right now!

quail hill

The low price the venture paid is a vivid sign of how land values have plummeted with the downturn, precipitated by defaults on subprime mortgages and tightening credit that have led to a broader slowdown in sales.

turtle ridge homes for sale

The low price the venture paid is a vivid sign of how land values have plummeted with the downturn, precipitated by defaults on subprime mortgages and tightening credit that have led to a broader slowdown in sales.

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