Ignore the smaller number with the higher margin of error and focus on the year over year number with the 9% margin of error. Best case scenario is a 12% drop in sales from this time last year, and on top of that many of the home builders are discounting up to, and over, 50% and still cannot sell that many homes. What this demonstrates is one of the most extreme cases of price inelasticity that I have ever come across, not withstanding sub-prime mortgage CDOs, of course. This seems to be manifesting itself in the census numbers since it is clear that sales volume is decreasing much faster than inventory, leading to an increase in inventory despite a lower number of housing starts. The home builders (at least some) are headed to bankruptcy court, and they may not be by themselves. Now, I am the last one to condone playing the statistics game, but even if you scrub these numbers to their most optimistic limit, things look down right dreadful, and the homebuilders are up about 2.5% today, despite KB Homes and Lennar losing a combined amount that approaches $2 billion, for the quarter. This goes to show you why you should always ignore day to day fluctuations and look for the big picture. Traders are not investors, and vice versa...
NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN AUGUST 2007
* below the revised July rate of 867,000 and is 21.2 percent (±9.0%)
Sales of new one-family houses in August 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 795,000, according
to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban
Development. This is 8.3 percent (±12.4%)
below the August 2006 estimate of 1,009,000.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2007 AT 10:00 A.M. EDT
Erica Filipek or Steven Berman Manufacturing and Construction Division (301) 763-5160 CB07-135
New Residential Sales data for September 2007 will be released on Thursday, October 25, 2007, at 10:00 A.M. EDT. Our Internet site is: EXPLANATORY NOTES The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2007 was $225,700; the average sales price was $292,000. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 529,000. This represents a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate.
These statistics are estimated from sample surveys. They are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated average relative standard errors of the preliminary data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2%) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. Changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show irregular movement. It takes 5 months to establish a trend for new houses sold. Preliminary new home sales figures are subject to revision due to the survey methodology and definitions used. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a “sale” is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. An estimate of these prior sales is included in the sales figure. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate of total sales is revised about 4 percent. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our web site listed above. *
90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero. Median Average United North- Mid- United North- Mid- Months' sales sales States east west South West States east west South West supply price ($) price ($) 2006: August 1,009 86 152 558 213 568 6.8 September 1,004 62 138 550 254 560 6.8 October 952 39 137 527 249 553 7.1 November 987 64 150 536 237 542 6.5 December 1,019 73 181 518 247 535 6.2 2007: January 890 62 166 492 170 536 7.2 February 840 46 127 462 205 544 8.1 March 830 82 126 421 201 548 8.3 April 907 82 121 495 209 547 7.4 May 861 84 141 435 201 543 7.7 June 835 71 115 469 180 542 7.9 July 867 52 112 477 226 537 7.6 August
Average RSE (%) 7 22 15 10 11 4 6 Percent Change: August 2007 from July 2007 -8.3% 42.3% 20.5% -14.7% -20.8% -1.5% 7.9%
90% Confidence Interval August 2007 from August 2006 -21.2% -14.0% -11.2% -27.1% -16.0% -6.9% 20.6% 90% Confidence Interval
2005: 1,283 81 205 638 358 515 47 109 249 109 (X) 240,900 297,000 2006: 1,051 63 161 559 267 537 54 97 267 119 (X) 246,500 305,900 RSE (%) 3 8 9 4 4 3 12 8 5 7 (X) 3 2 2006: Year to Date 755 45 117 397 196 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) 2007: Year to Date 595 49 91 315 140 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) RSE (%) 3 11 9 4 5 (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) Year to Date Percent Change
(X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)
90% Confidence Interval
(X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X)r 79 8 14 39 19 544 52 85 276 131 6.9 245,000 309,700r 76 6 11 44 16 543 51 85 273 134 7.1 233,200 305,600r 74 4 10 41 19 536 52 84 270 130 7.2 246,200 306,200
August
Average RSE (%) 7 22 15 10 11 4 12 8 4 6 6 5 5 p Revised. RSE Relative standard error. X Not applicable. Z Less than 0.5 percent. 1 Average RSE for the latest 6-month period. 4 Computed using unrounded data. Table 1. New Houses Sold and For Sale Note: The sales price includes the land.
[Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period For sale at end of period Table 2. New Houses Sold, by Sales Price Period Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted
[Thousands of houses. Components may not add to total because of rounding. Percents computed from unrounded figures] Under $150,000 to $200,000 to $300,000 to $400,000 to $500,000 to $750,000 Total $150,000 $199,999 $299,999 $399,999 $499,999 $749,999 and over 2005: 1,283 226 246 352 203 111 99 45 2006: 1,051 162 208 300 174 84 80 43 RSE (%) 3 11 6 5 6 8 8 14 2006: August 88 15 18 22 14 8 7 4 September 80 13 20 21 10 6 6 3 October 74 12 13 21 12 7 6 3 November 71 11 15 19 13 6 5 2 December 71 12 13 20 11 5 6 3 2007: January 66 9 15 18 11 6 5 3 February 68 9 12 21 11 5 6 3 March 80 8 16 24 14 7 6 4 April 83 14 18 22 12 7 6 4 May 79 10 17 24 13 6 6 3 June 76 11 20 21 10 5 6 3 July 74 12 14 24 11 4 6 3 August
Average RSE (%) 7 19 13 12 14 21 21 24 2005: 100 18 19 27 16 9 8 4 2006: 100 15 20 29 17 8 8 4 2006: August 100 17 20 25 16 9 8 5 September 100 17 25 26 13 8 7 4 October 100 16 18 29 16 9 8 4 November 100 16 21 27 18 9 7 3 December 100 17 19 28 16 7 9 4 2007: January 100 14 22 27 16 9 7 4 February 100 14 18 32 16 7 9 4 March 100 11 20 30 17 9 8 5 April 100 16 22 26 15 9 7 5 May 100 12 21 30 17 8 7 4 June 100 14 26 27 14 7 8 4 July 100 16 18 32 15 6 9 4 August
p Revised. RSE Relative standard error. X Not applicable. Z Less than 0.5 percent. 1 Houses for which sales price was not reported have been distributed proportionally to those for which sales price was reported. 2 Average RSE for the latest 6-month period. Period Number of houses 1 Percent distribution Table 3. New Houses Sold and For Sale by Stage of Construction and Median Number of Months on Sales Market Note: The sales price includes the land.
Median Not Under Not Under months Total started construction Completed Total started construction Completed for sale 1 2005: 1,283 503 465 315 515 93 307 115 4.0 2006: 1,051 346 368 337 537 78 285 174 4.3 RSE (%) 3 4 4 6 3 5 4 6 8 2006: August 88 29 31 28 570 96 324 150 3.5 September 80 25 25 29 561 84 318 159 3.4 October 74 22 25 28 558 84 306 168 3.7 November 71 19 24 28 548 79 300 170 4.1 December 71 19 21 30 537 78 285 174 4.3 2007: January 66 21 21 24 539 82 281 177 4.8 February 68 20 24 24 540 83 277 180 5.2 March 80 23 27 30 542 85 276 181 5.5 April 83 22 30 31 542 81 281 181 5.8 May 79 20 27 32 544 84 278 182 5.6 June 76 20 27 30 543 82 281 181 5.9 July 74 19 24 31 536 80 277 178 6.0 August
Average RSE (%) 7 7 8 9 4 8 5 5 5 p Revised. RSE Relative standard error. Z Less than 0.5 percent. 1 Median number of months for sale since completion. 2 Average RSE for the latest 6-month period. [Thousands of houses. Detail may not add to total because of rounding] Sold during period For sale at end of period Period
2006: August 88 7 13 49 19 570 53 103 291 123 6.5 243,900 317,300
September 80 5 11 44 20 561 51 103 286 121 7.0 226,700 296,200
October 74 3 11 40 20 558 54 104 280 120 7.5 250,400 306,800
November 71 5 11 39 16 548 54 102 273 119 7.8 240,100 291,800
December 71 5 12 39 15 537 54 97 267 119 7.6 244,700 301,900
2007: January 66 4 11 38 13 539 55 94 267 123 8.2 254,400 314,600
February 68 4 10 36 18 540 54 90 272 124 8.0 250,800 321,500
March 80 7 12 40 21 542 52 87 276 127 6.8 262,600 329,400
April 83 9 11 43 20 542 52 87 274 129 6.5 242,500 311,700
May
June
July
This goes to show you why you should always ignore day to day fluctuations and look for the big picture. Traders are not investors, and vice versa...
Posted by: newport coast homes for sale | July 20, 2011 at 07:01 PM
This goes to show you why you should always ignore day to day fluctuations and look for the big picture.
Posted by: quail hill irvine | July 28, 2011 at 12:34 AM