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December 03, 2007

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mike

Congrats... although I think you may have been as surprised as I was, or as a bull was, to see LEN do this. These guys have a serious transparency problem. And look at Mr. Kim's comments this morning regarding this transaction hahahaha.... why is he making his mother cry that she has such a stubborn perma-bullish son, why???

Reggie

Actually, I wasn't surprised at all. Listen, they have to sell the stuff one way or the other. I actually think land and home buyers who go in now are probably overpaying by chomping at the bit too early. I see MS was smart enough to make the deal highly structured, though. I would be content to wait a bit and let the land sellers get a little more desperate. Once the housing market bottoms, it is not like it is going to leap back up anywhere near bubble prices. So patience remains a virtue.

As for Kim, I would ignore him unless he is able to push the builder prices up high enough to allow another profitable round of shorting. If I get the time, I will graph his opinions next to mine.

Arun

More Lennar fire sales

http://www.presstelegram.com/ci_7628589

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/12/05/Business/Developer_scoops_up_p.shtml

At this rate it appears that Lennar is padding itself for 4Q report or they are selling to raise cash to pay the bills.

Or, is it a clever tactic to stiff the bond holders until they can enter Chapter 13 BK and reorganize? The MS deal structure with 50% voting control seems quite funny.

What is your take on it Reggie?

Reggie

I think Lennar's creditors were leaning on them hard and Lennar was hard pressed to generate liquidity. They are between a rock and a hard place here. By generating liquidity, they are marking their inventory to market which looks ugly in this environment. I will make this a new post.

50% voting control means that they paid for the right to veto MSs direction in the JV if they see fit. I am sure there is a clause in the contract that makes things a little clearer, though. If not, then it is probably litigation waiting to happen.

va refinancing loan

those guys have issues right now!

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