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December 06, 2007



Regarding the future US housing market prospects, you may find this analysis useful:


"This means the builders have two problems over the next few years: 1) too much inventory, and 2) demand will be significantly lower over the next few years than the 1995-2005 period, and even when the homeownership rate stabilizes and the inventory is reduced, demand (excluding speculation) will only be about 2/3 of the 1995-2005 period."

Quite a drastic change to their business prospects going forward!

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Hat tip to Arun, who pointed out that Lennar has sold much more property in their "fire sale". I would like to note that, at least for the time being, these transactions should not be considered fire sales, but normal economic activity considering the macro environment.

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