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November 20, 2007



Reggie, totally awesome -- I haven't read it all yet but so far it's pretty juicy.

Do you think that Lennar is alone in this kind of thing or does it just happen to be the first one you analyzed in depth? What if all the home builders are doing the same thing?

Also, does JV stand for joint venture?


"does JV stand for joint venture?"

Quite a few homebuilders are doing it. I will briefly touch upon one or two others befor I move on to the next real estate victim industry. It is getting too much press of late, so I need to get my shorts in order.

I will try to have the ABK report up in a day or so.



great analysis on LEN -- hey can you comment on BHS (Brookfield Homes)?

this stock seems to be defying gravity -- is there any reason it should go up while all other HB's get pummeled?

thanks for any comments and thanks for the continued great posts


I am still short HOV but I covered LEN yesterday after profiting nicely. I have been waiting to see your write-up of LEN but now that you did it, I still don't get it. Do I understand correctly that you consolidated the JV's debt but not its assets...????

Reggie Middleton

I consolidated everything but non-recourse debt. LEN had a long ride down, but I feel it has more to go. it fell $6 since I did the research

Reggie Middleton

I don't follow BHS, so can't comment.


Wow..!!! thx Reggie !!
jst lemme know if there's still some moeny left on the table for shorts at this stage or is it oversold at this price (14.97 now)...
was tempted to long this at 17, guess i saved my ass off...m still tempted to go long at this levels...before reading this stuff tho..


I want to be clear - I don't give investment advice, I only offer my opinions and musings on investments that I make and the macro/micro environment.


As a financial executive for a west region home builder that you cover, I find your analysis most astute. While I would love to refute your general outlook for the builders, sadly I cannot. I am amazed at the level of denial within our industry. While I have not been positive throughout the past several months, I am quickly coming to the realization that this will end far worse than most are willing to accept. Thank you for sharing your insights.


Unfortunately, I am very bearish on the real estate industries and related financing/services industries in general. I see a crash landing coming, that will drag down the international consumer and corporation alike.

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